FOREX-NATION

Well I called it perfectly on January 20th when I posted: Where the EUR/USD is headed. Using Fibonacci lines, I predicted the fall would reach the 138.2 level once it continued back down after retracing to the 38.2 level. And today it did exactly that ALMOST TO THE PIP reaching 1.3862, 3 pips below where I had the 138.2 line. More reason to check back often and follow along, after all, it’s free!

Fears over the ongoing Greek saga dominated the morning’s session with Germany and France denying any Greek bailout and Greece’s PM saying there are no talks with China about buying out their debt. Sounds to me like no one wants to go near this situation!

Anyway, we also had the KC Fed Manufacturing Index rise to 13 and U.S. durable goods orders rise 0.3%, weaker than expected but still good news. Based off that, the EUR/USD fell lower today. Here’s a snapshot of the trade I made 4 hours before New York’s session opened and rode out till 10 am EST. Whenever a strong downtrend is occurring I like to enter into trades around my red or blue MA’s, in this

Continue reading–>Nice move on the EUR/USD

What a day! And I don’t mean that in a good way, although I was able to scalp 14 pips during the FOMC statement release, so luckily it was still a profitable trading day.

The market is hard to read out there, ranges were not huge today but lots action went on and made it a turbulent market for the EUR/USD pair. A number of times the pair sunk down to the mid 1.4020s this morning but then options-related buying out of China ahead of 1.40 exotic triggers helped support the EUR. But growing fears in European credit markets continue to spring up: Greece, Portugal and Spain were all in the spotlight today and it was unforgiving. Spreads

Continue reading–>EUR/USD Wrap-Up

So as I mentioned in yesterday’s post, the EUR/USD has been a hard one to read since Friday, and I chose to remain on the sidelines and setup my indicators (support/resistance, trendlines, MA’s) and wait for a safe bet before I reentered. This pair has been retracing since Friday after a major downtrend that began back on January 14th around 1.4554 area and bottomed out on Thursday at the 1.4029 level. Since we are in a downtrend, I have been waiting on another opportunity to sell this pair because trading against the trend is riskier and provides less pips in general than trading with the trend. I also mentioned that I don’t expect to see the downtrend resume this week,

Continue reading–>Trendline break on the EUR/USD

We had Home Sales in the U.S. fall 16.7% (much worse than expected) but on the other hand inventory of unsold homes fell as well to its lowest level since March 2006 (a good thing). This might help explain the minimal reaction in the market to the news. Part of the reasoning behind the low numbers is that first-time home buyers rushed to complete deals before the $8,000 government incentive was expected to end on Nov. 30. The subsequent extension and expansion of the credit, together with the one- to two-month delay between contract signings and closings, probably means that demand will pick up again in the first half of this year.

The EUR/USD sea is a rough one today, just

Continue reading–>U.S. Home Sales Drop 16.7%, EUR/USD Consolidates

So it would appear like we finally found the bottom to this move down, although I’m staying out of the market now and I predict we will see a range form as traders wait it out and go into next week to take their cues form  next week’s economic data. Tomorrow will be a pretty dead day for news events expect for the GBP Retail Sales m/m which should produce some major action on the GBP/USD and GBP/EUR pairs, but the spread’s too wide for me on those pairs so I’ll sit it out.

I will resume trading on Monday, since by then the range that I am predicting will have formed it’s high and low more concretely. Also, fundamental factors

Continue reading–>EUR/USD Stalls

I’ve provided a snapshot of the exact fib lines I am using to predict where the recent downtrend in the EUR/USD will eventually bottom out. This is exactly what I did to predict price action in Monday’s post which you can find under My Trades. As far as this current downtrend is concerned, I recommend jumping back into it around the 1.4140 area which is at the 38.2 fib level on the hourly chart.

Many experts along with myself have been waiting since November for this downtrend to finally materialize, so understand that this is a move that has been in the making for many months now. I expect to see this pair fall down to the 1.3900 area before another

Continue reading–>Where The EUR/USD Is Headed