|
Ok, firstly I just want to say that I’m trying out Alpari UK for these demo charts as I was getting terrible data from Forex Ltd, they have at the moment a better data feed but their 5 digit system has messed up my daily averages …….. so I’ll probably ditch them and find another one soon.
Anyway on to this mornings trade which we could have played at least 2 ways.On the 30min chart above I have marked a resistance trendline (which comes from the hourly timeframe) and a channel. Once identified we would be looking for a breakout play above the trendline or a breakout play above or below the channel.
So looking at the 5min chart for
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| USD/JPY 100 pip breakout
Overnight we finally saw the 1.3463 support level that has provided so much support for the EUR/USD give way to selling pressure and as I predicted a significant sell-off ensued. It was a quite break though, and made me wonder if the breakout was legitimate or not for quite some time. Several fundamental factors influenced this including Fitch downgraded Portugal to AA-, Industrial Orders came in much weaker than expected, -2.0% m/m, +7.0% y/y, way below median forecasts of +1.9%, +14.2% respectively, and of course there’s Greece and I’ll spare you those details. Even with better than expected German Ifo data, business climate index, and PMI data, the EUR/USD can no longer ignore the 800 lb. gorilla in the room.
If
Continue reading–>EUR/USD Breaks Out of Range
As is usual for a Monday, no real economic news causes no major moves as the EUR/USD consolidates it’s losses after last Friday’s massive sell-off. And when the markets got nothing else to talk about you fall back on your favorite whipping post Greece. It would appear even clearer than ever now that Germany would like to have nothing to do with that countries debt crisis and possibly the euro currency itself. In a Financial Times/Harris poll, almost a third of Germans polled believe Greece should be asked to leave the euro zone while it sorts out it’s finances, while some 40% feel their own country would be better off outside the single currency. Then you have Austrian and
Continue reading–>EUR/USD Consolidates
Here’s how you too could have made money this week trading the EUR/USD using my system.
During this morning’s European session a relatively unimportant economic report, the euro zone’s Current Account index came in much worse than expected and essentially scared all the bulls out of the market. Because foreigners must buy the EUR currency to pay for the exports, these figures can have sizable affect on the EUR when they are far off from expectations. Combining this data with renewed talk of Greece having to seek IMF help from our buddy Chief finance spokesman Merkel’s killed off anymore chances of a rally for this pair. The trendline that I’ve been paying close attention was broken and signaled a further decline back down to the support line I have drawn at 1.3648 near the weekly S1.
Jitters
Continue reading–>Wrap Up for March 18
***UPDATE: Sorry, I originally had this video set to private but NOW it is public so you will be able to view it.
Sometimes it hurts to be right. I took a small loss of just 9 pips on yesterday’s bounce off of resistance trade and in my trade analysis I had mentioned that I believed the bulls would rally further before we’d see a true sell-off and profit taking. I mentioned that this was why I hadn’t yet moved my S/L to break even though at the time the trade initially went into profit by about 15 pips. Turns out that was exactly what happened, as 1.3761 was as low as this pair could go before buying interest picked back up again.
It now looks like selling pressure has returned with a vengeance, spurred on by the unemployment numbers out of the
Continue reading–>EUR/USD Wrap Up for March 17
Yep, I got in to the pip of where I have drawn the resistance line that I’ve included in my fundamental and technical analysis posts. Due to the fact that the EUR/USD is still bullish, I am monitoring this trade closely because it goes against the current trend. Since we are at the end of the day in New York, I expect there to be some profit taking and easing away from the line since this was an important area of resistance, but I don’t expect major profits from this trade. Once it reaches 30 to 40 pips (1.3740/30) I will begin to think about closing it out. That is if we don’t bounce back off of the red MA
Continue reading–>Sell EUR/USD at 1.3776
Risk appetite picked back up this morning during the Asian and European sessions as signs of strength for the euro zone and stability back here in the states all point towards an increase in risk appetite for investors. The chart I posted yesterday under the Technical Analysis section continues to frame price action quite well as the trendline was upheld during a brief sell-off on the EUR/USD followed by a rally that gained real momentum after the release of the ZEW March German economic sentiment index, a better than expected 44.5 vs 43.5 forecast. Also in the mix of economic data was the Core CPI and CPI which were both at expectations. In the U.S., the U.S. government has stated
Continue reading–>EUR/USD Wrap Up for March 16
|
Award Winning Forex Training
|
Most Popular Posts