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The Euro has taken a bashing recently losing 16% of it’s value since the start of the year, but is it really a problem? Lots of European countries have just crawled out of recession and with the ever present threat of a double dip just round the corner a cheap Euro is in my opinion not such a bad thing. In fact many see the currency as over valued by as much as 7% against the dollar, the Euro is far from being a weak currency, the problems seem largely political.
The advantages are in a countrys exports which typically become cheaper, creating demand which helps the job market which eventually helps the
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| Euro Perspective
Apologies in advance for the audio quality. Apparently my voice was too loud for the mic this time, but if you can get past the audio, I think it’s a decent analysis of the week’s events and set ups.
There’s not much else to the story besides the headline, but what a headline in a time such as this. This is perhaps a big reason for the most recent huge spike upwards. Here’s the link. I’m having an issue with hyperlinks so you’ll have to copy and paste it into your browser’s address bar. I know, I know, I should just fix the problem instead.
http://www.xe.com/news/2010-05-20%2013:16:00.0/1160325.htm?c=1&t=
Hi all, no trading at the beginning of the week as nothing was setting up the way I like so I’ve stayed out of the market. Today I had a trade where all the boxes got ticked. A very nice overnight Asian session consolidation period with the strength indicator showing a rising Euro and the Aussie crashing out. Shorting the Aussie was the trade today, the rest was deciding with what, I found the Euro the best set up for me, but you would have made money on the Pound or Yen. A very good trade getting in on the London session push and staying with it for another buying wave in
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| EUR/AUD Long Trade
This pair continues to reverse dramatically on it’s year long downtrend, and normally I’m not a trader who picks tops or bottoms but with such a turbo-charged turn around I have opened 10 micro lots @ 1.4450 for a long term trade perspective. My historical data goes back to 2001 and this is as low as this pair have been since then. There is a rollover disadvantage to this pair when your buying, but with proper MM this is not really a problem.
When trading it is important to diversify your trades and have some longer term positions in your portfolio. For example I still have an open position in gold from
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| EUR/AUD Still the No. 1 Trade
Yesterday we saw another collapse on the euro just as signs that the currency had begun to dust itself off appeared. Germany’s move to ban naked short sales of euro-denominated government bonds, credit default swaps based on those bonds, and shares in Germany’s 10 leading financial institutions was not taken as brilliant regulatory measure but instead as another major blunder by the ruling powers in Germany, truly a huge mistake in both timing and reasoning. What this ban means is that Germany banned naked short selling (selling something without having first bought it, or any plans to do so in the future) in shares of 10 financial institutions; CDS on European
Continue reading–>EUR/USD Wrap Up for May 19
The most recent spike downward has been caused by a report from Reuters that Merkel will announce a ban on naked short-selling of stocks and European government bonds tomorrow. Short-sale bans on shares have been used as temporary measures in the wake of the Lehman collapse but this is the first ban on the sale of government bonds! It is a big negative from a macro perspective for reserve managers who want big, deep, free capital markets in the markets in which they invest. IF this is more than a temporary measure, if could be a major euro negative. This also changes my outlook in the fundamental analysis I just posted, but I’m stressed for time now so I won’t
Continue reading–>NEWS FLASH: New Short Sell Ban to be Announced!
Risk aversion has subsided lately, as global stocks are doing better, oil was up over 2 bucks, and the euro had a good morning during the European session, seeing across the board improvement. There are some who have started to argue that the EUR/USD has found a bottom, for now anyways, as the EUR/USD has begun to consolidate and inch it’s way higher over the last 48 hours after achieving its lowest level since April of 2006. A almost perfect hammer (for you candlestick followers) has also formed on the daily chart lending more credit to this argument. As I’ve made mention in previous posts, sovereign names have been selling the EUR/USD for reserve diversification purposes and this will inevitably
Continue reading–>EUR/USD: Have We Found a Bottom?
If you want an ounce of gold the price is currently at 969€…. I’d hurry they’re selling like hot cakes.
Gold has broken it’s previous daily high, but why the sudden rush? ……… risk aversion or as it’s sometimes called the flight to safety. This is a clear sign that all is not well, and the demand comes primarily from Europe…… surprise, surprise.
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