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Just wanted to look at this Sterling Yen chart which really is an amazing pair, and although I am not in any way attached to currencies as in a favourite little friend, this one comes out pretty rock ‘n’ roll in my top movers list. These shocking pink head and shoulders patterns, which we can find on all time frames, contain some serious moves with plenty of momentum and can help in the identification of areas where the big money may be sitting with orders. These areas are where we hopefully can hitch a ride to some important moves whilst keeping our risk in the market at an acceptable level depending
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| High Probability Trades Only Please
EUR/JPY price entering into a heavy resistance zone at the moment that could just cap this corrective trend and keep consolidating the price or alternatively pick up some sellers and accelerate with the overriding trend down as we have seen four times previously. I will be looking to trade the high probability trade for me which would be the sell off rather than the breakout to new highs, at least for the moment. Obviously a very similar set up to the GBP/JPY .
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Here’s an update to my 1 hour chart from yesterday. So far I’ve been correct with regards to the current bullish momentum the EUR/USD, and I would continue to look for opportunities to buy on the dips in price action. But I should also caution you all to watch price action closely once it reaches the 1.2435/45 area that I wrote about in Monday’s fundamental analysis. As always, feel free to leave questions or comments below.
I thought I would put up a graphic of my 1 hour chart which I use for determining mid-term support resistance and also for drawing most of my trendlines and weekly and daily pivot levels. I’ve included some text to describe what you are seeing. Notice that the alligator is contracting and could perhaps cross over signaling a reversal in direction. But keep in mind that the current trend is a slightly bullish one and we are in an upward channel for right now, so I continue to look for buy entries over sell entries. Also, you’ll notice that a hammer candlestick has formed from the previous candlestick and this is usually a good indication of a bullish reversal.
Just having a look again into which general direction the Dollar and the Euro are potentially headed for in the near future. The markets have been showing signs of taking on more risk recently and there maybe an important swing low being established after an extended period of consolidation in the downtrend on the EURX chart.
The USDX also indicates this move away from the reserve currency into more profitable but riskier trades. For the moment I am staying out of the market until I can see some confirmation of a bigger trend formation. It won’t take much to spook the risk takers in my opinion, but the calender is fairly
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| Where Is the Crowd Going?
After achieving a 4-year low of 1.1875 last Monday, the EUR/USD closed last week at levels above 1.2100 area, shifting the pair’s near-term risk to the topside. Many experts are calling for a corrective rebound to 1.2330 and 1.2445 before we see a resumption of the main downtrend from there. I believe we could see the upper 1.2500′s reached if fundamentals continue to come in solid as they have over the last week. The consensus for this weeks’ Eurozone industrial production is for a lower amount than the previous readings, however given that April’s EU manufacturing PMI came out at a 46-month high and that German manufacturing PMI data showed its fastest sector growth since 1996 could mean there is
Continue reading–>Bullish Sentiment Returns to the EUR/USD
I was invited to join their Pro group for a few weeks and see what their Pro services were all about. This was not only a big surprise but also a huge honor. In addition to his role as Chief Market Strategist for fxKnight.com and a series of private funds, Andrei Knight is also a regular contributor to FXstreet, DailyFX, Forex Factory’s FNN, BabyPips, ForexPros, and the International Business Times, where he also sits on the advisory board. He is the author of “Trading Forex for a Living”, a certified NLP Practitioner, and a Certified Professional Life Coach. With a resume like that, you know you are in good hands when investing in
Continue reading–>Forex Education| fxKnight.com Review
I don’t talk much about this pair as there is so much info out there but I do trade it quite a lot. Following on from RMS Traders comments yesterday about when to hit the button, I wanted to show a near perfect example of what I am looking for in a high probability trade set-up.
A nice quiet Asian session in a tight consolidation condition keeping near the Previous Weeks Low. The probability, and that’s what we are basing our trading decision on, is very high for a continued decline in the Euro. We can identify a weak rise in price at the beginning of the European session, but our trading plan
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| EUR/USD Strategy Example
Yesterday it was rather difficult to find the right set-up, EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY were movers but I couldn’t find a satisfactory way in without increasing risk or decreasing lot size, I ended up back at the EUR/GBP. The series of charts show firstly the identification of a consolidation period and the confirmation of a weakening Euro against a slightly stronger GBP on the ‘strength meter’. Not great I admit but I went with it anyway.
I played the breakout, but in retrospect the trade should have been a range trade, entering where I placed my SL. This is a mistake and a point I need to keep an eye on.
Two
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| EUR/GBP Trade with Update
Two reports from a very high profile U.S. consulting firm helped put pressure on the euro during today’s sessions. One report said the SNB cannot sustain intervention in EUR/CHF as it has been doing. The second report said conditions are sufficiently dire in the euro money markets that the ECB may renew its 1-year long-term refinance operations, which expires next month, that was responsible for pumping over EUR 440 billion into the market last June. The ECB announced months ago that its was ending its LTRO funding operations but has been forced to reinstate both the three and six month refinance operations when the sovereign debt crisis intensified last month.
New fears also arose over Hungary becoming the next Greece which
Continue reading–>EUR/USD Wrap Up and Pre-NFP Analysis
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