EUR/USD vs. Daily Pivots

Well it looks like my bias for more of a down move on the EUR/USD below the 1.2600 level has not come into being just yet. The pair is still continuing to consolidate and shake out the longer-term short trades (mine included) as it inches is way above the 1.2700 level. Lots of resistance to be had up above, but since we are at the end of the week, I’m taking the next day off while this currency pair makes up its mind with regards to the next trend.

Anytime you are in a ranging market, daily pivot points work quite well at predicting price action. As I mentioned in my post below, I have been looking for opportunities to short

Continue reading–>EUR/USD vs. Daily Pivots

August 26th, 2010 | Category: My Trades, Technical Analysis | Leave a comment

Quick look at the EUR/USD 4 hr chart

UPDATE:  8-25-2010

I am still short on the EUR/USD as it still appears to be a bearish trending market as of this writing. Here are two more pics of my graphs. This first pic shows that a bearish engulphing candlestick has formed on the 4 hr chart and our moving averages are still far enough apart to indicate the bearish momentum is still decent.

Also lets see what forms of support might account for this period of consolidation that we are in. The answer is once again a fib level my friends. Here’s my daily chart where you will see that we are right around the 50 fib level from the recent May to August rally.

So I would watch

Continue reading–>Quick look at the EUR/USD 4 hr chart

August 24th, 2010 | Category: My Trades, Technical Analysis | 2 comments

Forex Vs. Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act

I started the year off championing the fight against the narrow-minded bureaucrats of the CFTC (Commodity Trading Futures Commission) who included a proposal to limit spot forex leverage to a ridiculous 10:1 for all U.S. based retail forex trading in an otherwise good intentioned proposal to regulate the growing forex industry in the U.S. The result of such over-regulation was an overwhelmingly negative one in which the CFTC received over 6,000 letters, emails, and faxes disapproving such a proposal. This was the most feedback the CFTC received for anything… ever! And it would appear that the outcry from U.S. traders and brokers has had the effect of silencing any real

Continue reading–>Forex Vs. Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act

August 10th, 2010 | Category: Must Read | 4 comments

Easy Trade Set Ups on the EUR/USD

I love it when a plan comes together! The trendline that I’ve been posting about and following since the end of June when bullish momentum took charge over the EUR/USD pair, was finally broken today as a result of both profit taking ahead of the U.S. FOMC meeting and and abysmal Q2 Non-Farm Productivity figures (biggest decline since Q3 2008). As a result of that trendline break we saw strong selling pressure that was met with slight support around the 200 MA and weekly S1. The retracement went right up to my red MA (which provides support/resistance in strong trending markets) as well as the 50 fib level. God I love fib levels more and more. Once the retracement was

Continue reading–>Easy Trade Set Ups on the EUR/USD

August 10th, 2010 | Category: My Trades, Technical Analysis | Leave a comment

NFP Trade Setup for August 2010

Well the numbers are in and as expected the unemployment rate held steady at 9.5%. June private sector jobs were revised much lower, to +31,000 from +83,000 previously! Total non-farm payrolls were revised lower to -221,000 in June, from -125,000 previously. All in all this was not a good sign of the times here in the U.S.

I’ve attached a photo of the trade setup that I took on the EUR/USD. Whenever trading the NFP, I always let the market choose a direction first, then wait for a retracement to begin and use my fib levels to determine my actual entry. In this case the momentum was very strong and so our retracement was very weak, only reaching the

Continue reading–>NFP Trade Setup for August 2010

August 6th, 2010 | Category: Fundamental Analysis, My Trades, Technical Analysis | Leave a comment

NFP Analysis: Watch for Private Sector growth/loss

Tomorrow is the first Friday of a new month, and as most traders are well aware it’s time for another crazy installment of Non-Farm Payrolls out of the U.S. If you’re not sure what the NFP is all about, I wrote a brief lesson regarding the NFP which you can read here. Last month the unemployment rate fell from 9.7% to 9.5% . If we see that rate fall again AND we see job growth instead of the expected outcome of continued job loss, THEN I think we will see an end to the current dollar weakness. But chances of this happening are really low.

Here’s what my fellow trader Andrei Knight (Sr. Currency Strategist for fxKnight.com) is

Continue reading–>NFP Analysis: Watch for Private Sector growth/loss

August 5th, 2010 | Category: Fundamental Analysis | Leave a comment