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60 leading currency analysts are predicting a narrow range for the euro vs. both the dollar and pound over the next 12 months. The poll of 60 foreign exchange strategists, taken this week predicted the euro would be trading at $1.31 in a year’s time, weaker than the $1.33 predicted in last month’s poll. After an Irish rescue package of 85 billion euros from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund announced this week, worries remain that bailouts will be needed in other euro zone countries.
According to this recent poll, the euro decline from 1.4280 will not go far beyond recent lows over the next 12 months and will not perform a strong recovery either, as EUR/USD is expected
Continue reading–>Narrow Range Predicted Over the Next Year – Reuters Poll
Ireland’s formal request for an EU bailout continues to weigh heavily on the Euro, as Spain’s bond market begins to show signs of trouble as well. Portugal, Belgium, and Italy also remain potential trouble spots, and Greece is not out of the fire yet as well. This, coupled with initially fairly promising holiday retail numbers out of the US, should make for some interesting trading on the EUR/USD in the final weeks of the year. Comments from Nigel Farage (MEP, UKIP, Co-President of the EFD group) also shed a great deal of light on the serious tensions building with the Euro zone leadership. It’s quite a treat to see such frank and honest apprasial of the political and financial situation.
Continue reading–>‘The Euro Game Is Up! Just who the hell do you think you are?’ – Nigel Farage MEP
Well the numbers are in and as expected the unemployment rate held steady at 9.5%. June private sector jobs were revised much lower, to +31,000 from +83,000 previously! Total non-farm payrolls were revised lower to -221,000 in June, from -125,000 previously. All in all this was not a good sign of the times here in the U.S.
I’ve attached a photo of the trade setup that I took on the EUR/USD. Whenever trading the NFP, I always let the market choose a direction first, then wait for a retracement to begin and use my fib levels to determine my actual entry. In this case the momentum was very strong and so our retracement was very weak, only reaching the
Continue reading–>NFP Trade Setup for August 2010
Tomorrow is the first Friday of a new month, and as most traders are well aware it’s time for another crazy installment of Non-Farm Payrolls out of the U.S. If you’re not sure what the NFP is all about, I wrote a brief lesson regarding the NFP which you can read here. Last month the unemployment rate fell from 9.7% to 9.5% . If we see that rate fall again AND we see job growth instead of the expected outcome of continued job loss, THEN I think we will see an end to the current dollar weakness. But chances of this happening are really low.
Here’s what my fellow trader Andrei Knight (Sr. Currency Strategist for fxKnight.com) is
Continue reading–>NFP Analysis: Watch for Private Sector growth/loss
The Euro reached a 2-month high after breaking above 1.2700 and continuing up to 1.2737 reaching the highest price since May 12. As I write this, my smaller time frames (hourly and 15 min) show extreme overbought conditions and it’s a safe bet that we will see the EUR/USD trigger some bearish corrective movement now and into the close of New York’s session. Most analysts that I keep up with say to watch for 1.2660/70 area to be the key: if it’s under, corrective movement could extend close to the 1.2600 area, while if price holds above the level, price action should resume bullish trend.
I traded two classic setups according to my strategy and using the 1 hour chart. First,
Continue reading–>EUR/USD Gets Extreme
Just having a look again into which general direction the Dollar and the Euro are potentially headed for in the near future. The markets have been showing signs of taking on more risk recently and there maybe an important swing low being established after an extended period of consolidation in the downtrend on the EURX chart.
The USDX also indicates this move away from the reserve currency into more profitable but riskier trades. For the moment I am staying out of the market until I can see some confirmation of a bigger trend formation. It won’t take much to spook the risk takers in my opinion, but the calender is fairly
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| Where Is the Crowd Going?
After achieving a 4-year low of 1.1875 last Monday, the EUR/USD closed last week at levels above 1.2100 area, shifting the pair’s near-term risk to the topside. Many experts are calling for a corrective rebound to 1.2330 and 1.2445 before we see a resumption of the main downtrend from there. I believe we could see the upper 1.2500′s reached if fundamentals continue to come in solid as they have over the last week. The consensus for this weeks’ Eurozone industrial production is for a lower amount than the previous readings, however given that April’s EU manufacturing PMI came out at a 46-month high and that German manufacturing PMI data showed its fastest sector growth since 1996 could mean there is
Continue reading–>Bullish Sentiment Returns to the EUR/USD
Two reports from a very high profile U.S. consulting firm helped put pressure on the euro during today’s sessions. One report said the SNB cannot sustain intervention in EUR/CHF as it has been doing. The second report said conditions are sufficiently dire in the euro money markets that the ECB may renew its 1-year long-term refinance operations, which expires next month, that was responsible for pumping over EUR 440 billion into the market last June. The ECB announced months ago that its was ending its LTRO funding operations but has been forced to reinstate both the three and six month refinance operations when the sovereign debt crisis intensified last month.
New fears also arose over Hungary becoming the next Greece which
Continue reading–>EUR/USD Wrap Up and Pre-NFP Analysis
After a very uneventful day yesterday the market exploded back to life today during both the European and NY sessions. The trading day began with serious market jitters over a multitude of problems: European stocks went down sharply (FTSE and DAX around 2%), oil off around 2 bucks, worries over health of euro zone banks, worries over France’s AAA rating, worries over China’s growth, worries over BP oil spill. Risk aversion remains very high.
With regards to the health of the euro banks I just mentioned, the European Central Bank sent announced last night that banks in the eurozone nations faced having to write off another €195 billion in bad loans
Continue reading–>EUR/USD Wrap Up for June 1
The Euro has taken a bashing recently losing 16% of it’s value since the start of the year, but is it really a problem? Lots of European countries have just crawled out of recession and with the ever present threat of a double dip just round the corner a cheap Euro is in my opinion not such a bad thing. In fact many see the currency as over valued by as much as 7% against the dollar, the Euro is far from being a weak currency, the problems seem largely political.
The advantages are in a countrys exports which typically become cheaper, creating demand which helps the job market which eventually helps the
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| Euro Perspective
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