FOREX-NATION

EUR/USD made it’s way once more back below 1.3300 as the Greek tragedy continues and new data paints a bleak picture for the euro zone. Moody’s Investors Service once again downgraded Greece’s government bond ratings to A3 from A2 and stated that a further possible downgrade might be coming upon further review. Hardly a major surprise there, but it did help send the euro much lower today. As I’ve mentioned before in previous posts, the bonds market is something to keep an eye on when evaluating the strength/weakness of the Greek situation and it’s impact on the currency market. Today Greek 5-year CDS rose to a record 616 bps after

Continue reading–>EUR/USD Wrap Up April 22

We spent Friday and Monday in a risk off mode as worries about the Goldman Sachs SEC charges took over and sent the bulls running for cover. While we’ve seen some moderate bounces during the European sessions on Monday and Tuesday, and strong data out regarding the better than expected ZEW data (German April economic sentiment coming in at 53.0 from 44.5 in March, above median forecast of 45.1), short-covering appears to be the main thing at play in the markets with positioning all wrong after NY basically ignored Goldman Sachs woes for reasons I’ll speculate on later in this post.

Today Goldman Sachs’ reported first quarter profits of $3.5 billion which also helped cushion the inevitable fall from grace that

Continue reading–>EUR/USD Bears Back in Business

EUR/USD worked its’ way ever so slowly higher during the Asian session to 1.3666 as a ‘risk on’ move developed after reports from Singapore about tightening monetary policy by effectively revaluing the Sing Dollar around 1.4%. Talk of massive stops above 1.3700 combined with Moodys comments that Greece’s chance of a rating cut is now greater than 50% also played a role in bringing a halt to the modest rally. Moody also followed those comments up with Greek default risk as a low probability event. That said the Greek stock market is down another 4% today and thus a rally looks to be out of the picture for today. One

Continue reading–>EUR/USD Wrap Up for April 14

It’s been a rough week for the EUR/USD as anyone who’s remotely aware of the ongoing issues with Greece and the euro zone are well aware. The selling pressure that’s been a result of fundamental forces between the two countries’ economies. A German bank is rumored to have been a big seller on the recent push down below 1.3300. Also the move came as the yield gap between Greek and German government bonds continues to widen which I first mentioned in an earlier post. But the sell-off met the technical level of support that I’ve been predicting would temporarily boost the EUR/USD back up; the weekly S2. Price action met the weekly S2 to the pip before rallying back up

Continue reading–>Another Dreary Day for the EUR/USD

The market has moved precisely as I said it would minus one prediction that had the EUR/USD finding support at the weekly S1. It actually blew through it at the open of the New York session and continues to give way to selling pressure. I have been told that there are lots of rumors in the market today of wealthy Greeks moving money offshore, perhaps into London and the U.S. I can believe it, especially with renewed concerns for Greece’s debt popping up as credit default swaps moved 65 basis points higher on the day through the 400 bp level. The higher the bp, the worse the outlook for the euro gets.

Continue reading–>EUR/USD Wrap Up for April 6

Heading into the new week, let’s take a quick review of last Friday’s NFP report and what effect it could have on the dollar for this week. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in March. We also had February’s number revised to a much better –14K compared to the previously reported -36K. So what that comes down to is that the US economy added an average of 54K jobs a month in the first quarter, which will likely have the effect of boosting the dollar in the week to come. The manufacturing sector also has shown an increase of 17K jobs, 45K for the first quarter. Many analysts will also take into account that many of the jobs that were

Continue reading–>Selling Pressure Returns for the Euro

Last night I posted a video of the trade setup I used to catch yesterday’s break from the range with a decent selloff and scored some easy pips. I also mentioned my analysis for today and why I was predicting another decent rally on the EUR/USD. So I feel the need here to toot my own horn and brag a little, as we’ve seen the euro rally from last week’s low of 1.3385 to a fresh session high at 1.3543 and the pair has taken back all the ground lost on Tuesday’s selloff. As I went over briefly in yesterday’s video, this rally might be attributed to the end of the month flows that several fundamental forces produce. One of

Continue reading–>EUR/USD Wrap Up for March 31

The dollar lost ground across the board today, but it’s nothing major as of yet. Probably a mix of reactions concerning the recently announced EU Greek debt plan and what effect it will truly have other than a temporary rebound in risk appetite. Fitch announced today that it has decided to maintain its negative outlook regarding Greece’s financial security calling for clarity on Greece’s financing strategy. They went on to state that the EU statement of support for Greece is positive for the their credit profile but they are maintaining their negative outlook due to uncertainty of fiscal adjustment within Greece.

News from Moscow regarding the terrorist attack might have given the

Continue reading–>EUR/USD Consolidates