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Just wanted to look at this Sterling Yen chart which really is an amazing pair, and although I am not in any way attached to currencies as in a favourite little friend, this one comes out pretty rock ‘n’ roll in my top movers list. These shocking pink head and shoulders patterns, which we can find on all time frames, contain some serious moves with plenty of momentum and can help in the identification of areas where the big money may be sitting with orders. These areas are where we hopefully can hitch a ride to some important moves whilst keeping our risk in the market at an acceptable level depending
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| High Probability Trades Only Please
EUR/JPY price entering into a heavy resistance zone at the moment that could just cap this corrective trend and keep consolidating the price or alternatively pick up some sellers and accelerate with the overriding trend down as we have seen four times previously. I will be looking to trade the high probability trade for me which would be the sell off rather than the breakout to new highs, at least for the moment. Obviously a very similar set up to the GBP/JPY .
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Just having a look again into which general direction the Dollar and the Euro are potentially headed for in the near future. The markets have been showing signs of taking on more risk recently and there maybe an important swing low being established after an extended period of consolidation in the downtrend on the EURX chart.
The USDX also indicates this move away from the reserve currency into more profitable but riskier trades. For the moment I am staying out of the market until I can see some confirmation of a bigger trend formation. It won’t take much to spook the risk takers in my opinion, but the calender is fairly
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| Where Is the Crowd Going?
I don’t talk much about this pair as there is so much info out there but I do trade it quite a lot. Following on from RMS Traders comments yesterday about when to hit the button, I wanted to show a near perfect example of what I am looking for in a high probability trade set-up.
A nice quiet Asian session in a tight consolidation condition keeping near the Previous Weeks Low. The probability, and that’s what we are basing our trading decision on, is very high for a continued decline in the Euro. We can identify a weak rise in price at the beginning of the European session, but our trading plan
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| EUR/USD Strategy Example
Yesterday it was rather difficult to find the right set-up, EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY were movers but I couldn’t find a satisfactory way in without increasing risk or decreasing lot size, I ended up back at the EUR/GBP. The series of charts show firstly the identification of a consolidation period and the confirmation of a weakening Euro against a slightly stronger GBP on the ‘strength meter’. Not great I admit but I went with it anyway.
I played the breakout, but in retrospect the trade should have been a range trade, entering where I placed my SL. This is a mistake and a point I need to keep an eye on.
Two
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| EUR/GBP Trade with Update
This should have gone up yesterday but I ran out of time, anyway as I always point out this blog is about learning not signals. As time moves on we are building up a proven history of how this breakout strategy keeps on working, and the reason it keeps working is because we are following the big money. They decide, we follow.
A pretty straightforward breakdown of support from a ranging condition, the attempts at a move higher in price not hooking us in, as the overall trend is most obviously down. On a 5min chart you could have gotten in a little earlier trading a breakout of a smaller range within the
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| EUR/GBP Setup
Europe, if it didn’t already exist you’d be hard pressed to come up with such a unique creation of civilization. It’s history is ageless but one of the major themes that has been present through practically all of that tale, is trade. The buying and selling of things is a very strong foundation in our evolutionary lives, and has immediate and long term ramifications for all societies. For those of us who have chosen to buy and sell currencies the ‘immediate’ is where our objectives are focused, but nevertheless it is sometimes interesting to look at the bigger buying and selling picture to understand potential new general economic trends that may
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| Euro Zone Imports and Exports
The Euro has taken a bashing recently losing 16% of it’s value since the start of the year, but is it really a problem? Lots of European countries have just crawled out of recession and with the ever present threat of a double dip just round the corner a cheap Euro is in my opinion not such a bad thing. In fact many see the currency as over valued by as much as 7% against the dollar, the Euro is far from being a weak currency, the problems seem largely political.
The advantages are in a countrys exports which typically become cheaper, creating demand which helps the job market which eventually helps the
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| Euro Perspective
Hi all, no trading at the beginning of the week as nothing was setting up the way I like so I’ve stayed out of the market. Today I had a trade where all the boxes got ticked. A very nice overnight Asian session consolidation period with the strength indicator showing a rising Euro and the Aussie crashing out. Shorting the Aussie was the trade today, the rest was deciding with what, I found the Euro the best set up for me, but you would have made money on the Pound or Yen. A very good trade getting in on the London session push and staying with it for another buying wave in
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| EUR/AUD Long Trade
This pair continues to reverse dramatically on it’s year long downtrend, and normally I’m not a trader who picks tops or bottoms but with such a turbo-charged turn around I have opened 10 micro lots @ 1.4450 for a long term trade perspective. My historical data goes back to 2001 and this is as low as this pair have been since then. There is a rollover disadvantage to this pair when your buying, but with proper MM this is not really a problem.
When trading it is important to diversify your trades and have some longer term positions in your portfolio. For example I still have an open position in gold from
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| EUR/AUD Still the No. 1 Trade
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