FOREX DAWN| April NFP

This should prove interesting as we have seen a lot of dollar selling this week, investors and traders looking like they are happy to take on a bit more risk. The precursor to the government figures is the ADP figures released last Wednesday, it has a rather shaky history in it’s predictive value but recently it has seemed to be getting nearer the mark. Here is a comparison of the two data sets:

ADP                     NFP

March                                                      -20K                        -36K
February                                                  -22K                       -20K
January                                                    -84K                       -85K
December                                                -169K                     -11K
November                                                -203K                     -190K

The last ADP figure came in at -23K, the expected NFP figure is 185K, this is a big positive number and the two don’t really

Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| April NFP

April 2nd, 2010 | Category: Guest Analyst | Leave a comment

FOREX DAWN| Cable Breaking 1.50

First thing this morning at the London open I managed to catch cable breaking the 1.50 barrier. The trade it’s self is fairytale textbook, price breaks, price retraces to previous resistance, price moves higher, trader lives happily ever after. Had a very tight stop of 10pips because of the possibility of a false break at this level, a rinse and wash as the city boys call it, but no it got a clean breakaway.
At this point I’ve taken 50% of the trade out of the second lot at +80pips, (the first lot cashed in for 17pips to cover SL) and SL moved to breakeven.  I want to hang on to this trade

Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| Cable Breaking 1.50

March 30th, 2010 | Category: Guest Analyst, Technical Analysis | Leave a comment

Forex Dawn| Monday Monitor

Not a lot happening for me this Monday morning European session, just a quick rundown of what I’m looking at:

USD/JPY is in a 40 pip range that I’m waiting for the breakout.

EUR/GBP is in a 35 pip range, again looking for the breakout on that. Price alerts are set so I don’t have to keep looking at the screen and can get on with other stuff.

Cable has pushed up to that 1.50 level again, but for now lacks the power to stay above it.
The Aussie finding some momentum upward, currently at a previous resistance level 9138.

George Richards is our guest analyst and runs his own blog found at forexdawn2010.blogspot.com

March 29th, 2010 | Category: Guest Analyst | Leave a comment

Forex Dawn| LIVE! Breakout Trade

***UPDATE: well this is becoming a bit of a bad habit lol! so the price came looking for my stop….. and found it. As I type the trade would have been up another 40pips, some work to do I think. Still I always wanted this blog to be a true reflection of my trading and I certainly won’t be posting just the “Disney” trades where everybody lives happily ever after. The reality is that we, or at least I need to keep a constant eye on things like this to make sure that there isn’t a problem trying to sneak in by the backdoor. There is a fine line between maxing

Continue reading–>Forex Dawn| LIVE! Breakout Trade

March 25th, 2010 | Category: Guest Analyst, Trade Analysis | Leave a comment

FOREX DAWN| USD/JPY 100 pip breakout

Ok, firstly I just want to say that I’m trying out Alpari UK for these demo charts as I was getting terrible data from Forex Ltd, they have at the moment a better data feed but their 5 digit system has messed up my daily averages …….. so I’ll probably ditch them and find another one soon.
Anyway on to this mornings trade which we could have played at least 2 ways.On the 30min chart above I have marked a resistance trendline (which comes from the hourly timeframe) and a channel. Once identified we would be looking for a breakout play above the trendline or a breakout play above or below the channel.

So looking at the 5min chart for

Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| USD/JPY 100 pip breakout

March 24th, 2010 | Category: Guest Analyst | One comment
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