FOREX-NATION

Well it was an abysmal employment report last week but that didn’t mean risk off for the eur/usd as the market jumped to life after a brief risk aversion reaction to the unexpectedly low figure. That said the market closed Friday with some minor profit taking and consolidating going into the weekend.

Looking ahead it would appear that markets are still consolidating and has found decent support for the time being at the 200 MA and just above the Daily S1. My initial analysis is that the euro/usd will continue to climb back up the price ladder, but the only puzzling factor here is the crossover on our alligator which gives me a conflicting signal. So no trading for the day

Continue reading–>A Look at the EUR/USD Chart

I want to show you my latest example of Fibonacci retracement and extension levels working together to produce profitable trade opportunities. You will also see in the image below that the fib. levels agreed with my other indicators in confirming the direction of the trend. Both the 200 MA and the weekly pivots provided me with entry opportunities for a great longterm trade setup as well as allowed me to justify staying in the market even after the target of 138.2 was hit earlier this morning. This one trade has already netted me over 750 pips. Now that it has reached the weekly S1, I’m cautiously watching to see if this critical level in price action will spur a new rally, or if

Continue reading–>Fibonacci Trading| 38.2 Retracement Reaches 138.2 Extension

After a week of boring range trading, the pair rose earlier to 1.2855 where it met the Weekly R1. This was the highest price since August 19. Despite the pull back after we hit the Weekly R1, the Euro is still trading more than a 120 pips above today’s opening price, the biggest daily gain in almost a month. Looking ahead, I would expect to see the current rally extend as high as 1.2900′s. Also watch for 1.2780 as an important level of support; it is both the old trend high for the recent rebound as well as the 38.2% retracement of today’s 1.2663/1.2855 range.

Here’s my 4 hr chart.  Good luck trading!

Well it looks like my bias for more of a down move on the EUR/USD below the 1.2600 level has not come into being just yet. The pair is still continuing to consolidate and shake out the longer-term short trades (mine included) as it inches is way above the 1.2700 level. Lots of resistance to be had up above, but since we are at the end of the week, I’m taking the next day off while this currency pair makes up its mind with regards to the next trend.

Anytime you are in a ranging market, daily pivot points work quite well at predicting price action. As I mentioned in my post below, I have been looking for opportunities to short

Continue reading–>EUR/USD vs. Daily Pivots

UPDATE:  8-25-2010

I am still short on the EUR/USD as it still appears to be a bearish trending market as of this writing. Here are two more pics of my graphs. This first pic shows that a bearish engulphing candlestick has formed on the 4 hr chart and our moving averages are still far enough apart to indicate the bearish momentum is still decent.

Also lets see what forms of support might account for this period of consolidation that we are in. The answer is once again a fib level my friends. Here’s my daily chart where you will see that we are right around the 50 fib level from the recent May to August rally.

So I would watch

Continue reading–>Quick look at the EUR/USD 4 hr chart

I love it when a plan comes together! The trendline that I’ve been posting about and following since the end of June when bullish momentum took charge over the EUR/USD pair, was finally broken today as a result of both profit taking ahead of the U.S. FOMC meeting and and abysmal Q2 Non-Farm Productivity figures (biggest decline since Q3 2008). As a result of that trendline break we saw strong selling pressure that was met with slight support around the 200 MA and weekly S1. The retracement went right up to my red MA (which provides support/resistance in strong trending markets) as well as the 50 fib level. God I love fib levels more and more. Once the retracement was

Continue reading–>Easy Trade Set Ups on the EUR/USD

Here’s a simple look at my 4 hr chart where I only have my trendline and fib levels showing. The fact that we have the 61.8 fib level syncing up perfectly with a nice round price level like 1.3000 shows that we are at a critical level (I believe) for the euro. For 9 days in a row now, that 1.3000 price and 61.8 fib level has been tested and yet not broken on the daily chart as well. There is LOTS more resistance levels above than support levels below, leading me to guess that the rally we’ve been riding high on is at a plateau and soon we’ll see a reversal in trend. Above the 1.3000, we have

Continue reading–>EUR/USD Ready to Breakout

Well last week I posted the graphic showing how the 50 fib level provided resistance to the strong rally we were seeing all week and reminded everyone of the powerful tool that fibonacci levels are to trading. Well now the next level up, and one of the most crucial levels to know about, 61.8 has provided a stronger source of resistance by capping any rallies above it three days in a row. We have now seen a sell-off that currently finds support at the 50 fib level (support turned resistance). The pair is now consolidating in a tight range between 1.2790 and 1.2830. Whichever of those two levels is broken first, that’s the next entry setup for you to take

Continue reading–>EUR/USD Finds Resistance at 61.8 Fib Level