EUR/USD At Crossroads

First let me give a quick recap to yesterday’s market action and then I will get into my analysis for the upcoming week. Some highlights from yesterday’s news:

·    Bloomberg reports Germany may use KfW bank to buy Greek debt
·    EU says Greece needs another EUR 4 bln in budget cuts
·    Chicago PMI rises to 62.6 from 61.5; stronger than expected
·    Reuters: Long dollar position on IMM* largest since Lehman collapse
·    S&P 500 rises 0.1%
·    Oil up 1.51 to $79.68; gold little changed at $1116
·    AIG reports large loss, says may need more government aid
·    US Q4 GDP revised to +5.9% from 5.7%, consumer spending weak
·    University of Michigan consumer sentiment index falls to 73.6 from 74.4
·    US existing home sales

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February 27th, 2010 | Category: Fundamental Analysis | 4 comments

Fundamental Outlook for Feb. 21-26

Last week was a continuation of our range bound trading that began Feb. 8th, and except for the fake out provided by Bernanke and friends on Thursday with the Fed discount rate hike, we continue to be range bound. Now that price action has returned to pre-release levels, I believe it shows that we are locked into a battle of fundamental and technical forces and that the parameters have been set to watch for a breakout. A return and close above 1.3800 would mean we are definitely going back up before we go down any further, while a return back below 1.3540 would mean sentiment has become more bearish and I would look for a move down to the 1.3300’s

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February 21st, 2010 | Category: Fundamental Analysis | Leave a comment

What Is Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is the use of economic data given out by government agencies, economic groups, and political and business leaders that effect the value of a country’s economy. These types of economic reports are usually released according to scheduled times and can be located using an economic calendar like the one found on this website.

Understanding the economic calendar is central to being able to conduct fundamental analysis. Here’s an example of the calendar that is located on this website.

Since the market reacts to the most recent economic news events it is crucial that you begin each week of trading by taking a look at the upcoming news events for that week. As you look at

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January 12th, 2010 | Category: Forex Training, Fundamental Analysis, Lessons, What Is Fundamental Analysis | Leave a comment

NFP - Non-Farm Payrolls

This is one of the biggest indicators you will come across when you study fundamental analysis because it does so well at describing not just the state of the US economy but also how the other big economic indicators will turn out later in the month such as CPI, PPI, GDP, and even Housing. In another section I’ll discuss trading this announcement, but for the purposes of this lesson I just want to translate what it is, how its developed, and what it means.

Non-Farm Payrolls gets released the first Friday of every month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the US department of Labor. It is a compilation of a series of surveys conducted by the BLS which

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January 6th, 2010 | Category: Economic Indicators, Fundamental Analysis | One comment