Tomorrow is the first Friday of a new month, and as most traders are well aware it’s time for another crazy installment of Non-Farm Payrolls out of the U.S. If you’re not sure what the NFP is all about, I wrote a brief lesson regarding the NFP which you can read here. Last month the unemployment rate fell from 9.7% to 9.5% . If we see that rate fall again AND we see job growth instead of the expected outcome of continued job loss, THEN I think we will see an end to the current dollar weakness. But chances of this happening are really low.
Here’s what my fellow trader Andrei Knight (Sr. Currency Strategist for fxKnight.com) is saying:
I’m expecting we’ll do a bit better than last month’s -125K, but perhaps not quite enough for a positive number. The important thing to listen for, however, remains the sector-by-sector breakdown, and not the headline number. We need gains in areas besides government and healthcare, and permanent jobs rather than temp ones. Otherwise there is no long-term recovery possible. I’m not as optimistic about the unemployment percentage, however – we may well hold steady or even slightly worsen there.
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