Tomorrow is the first Friday of a new month, and as most traders are well aware it’s time for another crazy installment of Non-Farm Payrolls out of the U.S. If you’re not sure what the NFP is all about, I wrote a brief lesson regarding the NFP which you can read here. Last month the unemployment rate fell from 9.7% to 9.5% . If we see that rate fall again AND we see job growth instead of the expected outcome of continued job loss, THEN I think we will see an end to the current dollar weakness. But chances of this happening are really low.
Here’s what my fellow trader Andrei Knight (Sr. Currency Strategist for fxKnight.com) is
Continue reading–>NFP Analysis: Watch for Private Sector growth/loss
Here’s a simple look at my 4 hr chart where I only have my trendline and fib levels showing. The fact that we have the 61.8 fib level syncing up perfectly with a nice round price level like 1.3000 shows that we are at a critical level (I believe) for the euro. For 9 days in a row now, that 1.3000 price and 61.8 fib level has been tested and yet not broken on the daily chart as well. There is LOTS more resistance levels above than support levels below, leading me to guess that the rally we’ve been riding high on is at a plateau and soon we’ll see a reversal in trend. Above the 1.3000, we have
Continue reading–>EUR/USD Ready to Breakout
Well last week I posted the graphic showing how the 50 fib level provided resistance to the strong rally we were seeing all week and reminded everyone of the powerful tool that fibonacci levels are to trading. Well now the next level up, and one of the most crucial levels to know about, 61.8 has provided a stronger source of resistance by capping any rallies above it three days in a row. We have now seen a sell-off that currently finds support at the 50 fib level (support turned resistance). The pair is now consolidating in a tight range between 1.2790 and 1.2830. Whichever of those two levels is broken first, that’s the next entry setup for you to take
Continue reading–>EUR/USD Finds Resistance at 61.8 Fib Level
I failed to realize this yesterday, so here is an actual image to show that the recent stall in this most recent rally occurred right at the 50% fib level on the daily chart from this year’s April to May swing high and low. This is why you need to know how to use fib.’s my friends! Also Adding to the resistance was our Weekly R1 which price action broke but hasn’t closed above on the hourly, and the daily R1 just above there (not seen in this image).
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Continue reading–>EUR/USD Meets Resistance at 50% Fib Level
The Euro reached a 2-month high after breaking above 1.2700 and continuing up to 1.2737 reaching the highest price since May 12. As I write this, my smaller time frames (hourly and 15 min) show extreme overbought conditions and it’s a safe bet that we will see the EUR/USD trigger some bearish corrective movement now and into the close of New York’s session. Most analysts that I keep up with say to watch for 1.2660/70 area to be the key: if it’s under, corrective movement could extend close to the 1.2600 area, while if price holds above the level, price action should resume bullish trend.
I traded two classic setups according to my strategy and using the 1 hour chart. First,
Continue reading–>EUR/USD Gets Extreme
Just wanted to look at this Sterling Yen chart which really is an amazing pair, and although I am not in any way attached to currencies as in a favourite little friend, this one comes out pretty rock ‘n’ roll in my top movers list. These shocking pink head and shoulders patterns, which we can find on all time frames, contain some serious moves with plenty of momentum and can help in the identification of areas where the big money may be sitting with orders. These areas are where we hopefully can hitch a ride to some important moves whilst keeping our risk in the market at an acceptable level depending
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| High Probability Trades Only Please
EUR/JPY price entering into a heavy resistance zone at the moment that could just cap this corrective trend and keep consolidating the price or alternatively pick up some sellers and accelerate with the overriding trend down as we have seen four times previously. I will be looking to trade the high probability trade for me which would be the sell off rather than the breakout to new highs, at least for the moment. Obviously a very similar set up to the GBP/JPY .
See more posts like this at http://forexdawn2010.blogspot.com
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Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| EUR/JPY Possible Shorting Zone
Here’s an update to my 1 hour chart from yesterday. So far I’ve been correct with regards to the current bullish momentum the EUR/USD, and I would continue to look for opportunities to buy on the dips in price action. But I should also caution you all to watch price action closely once it reaches the 1.2435/45 area that I wrote about in Monday’s fundamental analysis. As always, feel free to leave questions or comments below.
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Continue reading–>EUR/USD Chart for June 17
I thought I would put up a graphic of my 1 hour chart which I use for determining mid-term support resistance and also for drawing most of my trendlines and weekly and daily pivot levels. I’ve included some text to describe what you are seeing. Notice that the alligator is contracting and could perhaps cross over signaling a reversal in direction. But keep in mind that the current trend is a slightly bullish one and we are in an upward channel for right now, so I continue to look for buy entries over sell entries. Also, you’ll notice that a hammer candlestick has formed from the previous candlestick and this is usually a good indication of a bullish reversal.
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Continue reading–>Quick Look at My Chart
Just having a look again into which general direction the Dollar and the Euro are potentially headed for in the near future. The markets have been showing signs of taking on more risk recently and there maybe an important swing low being established after an extended period of consolidation in the downtrend on the EURX chart.
The USDX also indicates this move away from the reserve currency into more profitable but riskier trades. For the moment I am staying out of the market until I can see some confirmation of a bigger trend formation. It won’t take much to spook the risk takers in my opinion, but the calender is fairly
Continue reading–>FOREX DAWN| Where Is the Crowd Going?
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